Ever since I read the book Benghazi: Know Thy Enemy: A Cold Case Investigation, I have been paying attention to its author, former CIA analyst Sarah Adams.
Last week I listened to her being interviewed on the Shawn Ryan podcast. I’d urge you to watch/listen to the whole episode, but the most relevant part for this discussion happens from 1:10-1:30.
SRS #149 Sarah Adams – Is the Pentagon Ignoring the Most Dangerous Threat of All?
Sarah is a former CIA intelligence analyst who now analyzes open source intelligence networks to predict terrorist attacks. In the episode, she discusses the intelligence she obtained detailing the fact that 1000-1500 Islamist terrorists are either in the USA or en route here to conduct a wave of terrorist attacks.
Listen to her interview first. Then read my commentary on the information she shares.
The model for the upcoming attacks in the USA will be the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. Few people remember this event when five teams of two terrorists each wreaked havoc on the Indian city over the course of a couple days.
I’ve analyzed this attack in depth and occasionally use it as a case study in some of my terrorism/active killer response classes. What was unique about this attack is that the terrorists were given a plan by their handlers, but they were allowed to adjust the plan on the fly in order to kill more people. They used both bombs and guns in the attack.
Mumbai terrorist armed with a rifle, pistol, and bag full of bombs.
A RAND CORPORATION report titled The Lessons of Mumbai provided the terrorist equipment list. Quoted from the report:
“The terrorists came heavily armed. Each carried an AK-56 automatic assault rifle (a Chinese version of the Russian AK-47) with seven magazines of ammunition (30 rounds each). The terrorists also used Heckler & Koch MP5 machine guns but may have taken these from dead or wounded Indian security personnel. The attackers were armed with 9-mm pistols with two clips of ammunition, and they carried hand grenades (8 to 10 grenades each, according to one report). They also had improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Each device reportedly contained the high explosive RDX, ball bearings to create shrapnel, a digital timer, and a 9-volt battery.
Five devices were located. Two were left behind in taxis used by the attackers, and three others were left at other locations along their route to detonate later, creating greater confusion. The two devices left in the taxis exploded. The others failed or were rendered safe by Indian bomb squads.”
I urge you all to learn more about this event. I think the best resource is the book
You can also watch Terror in Mumbai. The video shows a minute by minute progression of the event along with audio (with translation) of exactly what the terrorist were saying and the advice they were given by their handlers. If you want to get into the mind of an active killer, this is a great reference.
Suicide bombs for novelty. The one issue I have with Sarah’s information is that she stated there has never been a suicide bombing attack in the USA. That is incorrect.
In 2005, a man attempted to enter a University of Oklahoma football stadium with a suicide bomb vest while a game was going on. He was denied entry as he didn’t have a ticket and he either self detonated or his vest spontaneously blew up as he sat on a bench outside the stadium.
In one of the terrorist bombing classes I took, I spoke to an FBI agent and bomb tech who investigated this incident. It was definitely a terrorist bombing attempt yet few people have ever heard of it. Pre-dating that attack, we also saw a suicide bomb collar affixed around a man’s neck in order to facilitate a bank robbery.
Despite both of these previous attacks, I still agree with Ms. Adams about the fact that the next wave of attacks is likely to include bombs, even if just for the novelty.
The fact that several IEDs were found in the New Orleans vehicle run down attack is consistent with this theory. This article claims a witness saw three males and a female loading the car up with bombs. Yesterday’s Tesla cyber truck explosion outside the Trump hotel also had an explosive component.
Photo of the unexploded ordnance (mostly fireworks and gasoline) in the back of the cyber truck.
After the 2017 London vehicle run down attack, I warned you all about terrorists combining vehicle attacks with bombs. I’m honestly surprised it took this long to see it actually happen. Leaving an IED in the car used for a run-down attack is a brilliant tactic. Set it to detonate 10-15 minutes after the attack ends and you’ll wipe out all the first responders coming to the scene to help. It’s the ultimate “secondary device.”
I teach a few terrorist bombing classes every year. Very few people sign up for them. I think a lot of folks are going to regret not learning about this stuff considering what I think is coming in our country. If you can’t make it to my class, at least read my article Armed Citizen Response to Terrorist Bombers.
Fedayeen and terrorists fighting to the death- Ms. Adams mentions the “fight to the death” attitude cultivated in the Fedayeen who make up some of the terrorists who have been trained to conduct the attacks on American soil.
This is a very important piece of information for citizen defenders like you and I. The common street criminal knows that if you draw a firearm to defend yourself you probably won’t shoot him if he breaks off the attack and flees. That’s one of the reasons we seldom see citizens being “undergunned” when carrying a snub-nose revolver or small auto pistol during a street attack .
These guys are different. If you intervene in one of these attacks, the terrorists are not going to break contact. They will fight until either you or they are dead.
I’ve written numerous articles about how I feel comfortable carrying a small snub revolver in my low crime neighborhood. No more. You may not be dealing with the lone crackhead robber anymore. If you have to fight against multiple motivated terrorists armed with explosives and long guns, your .38 snub is the wrong tool for the job.
I would suggest that from this point forward, you shouldn’t leave the house without a medium to full-sized auto pistol and at least one spare magazine. Practice your long range pistol shooting as well.
Vehicle run down attacks- I don’t know for sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me that the vehicle run down terrorist attack in New Orleans this weekend is the start of the wave of terrorism described by Ms. Adams. I think vehicle attacks are going to be a common tactic utilized by these terrorists.
Why would they use cars instead of guns and bombs? It’s quite simple. Big cars cause massive numbers of casualties. They are easier to acquire than guns and bombs. Finally, the ISIS propaganda publication Rumiyah has specifically called for Muslim terrorists to use vehicles and knives as weapons against the Western world.
“The latest issue of Rumiyah, a new magazine from the terror group aimed at English-language speakers, included an article titled “Just Terror Tactics” that outlined ideal vehicles to use in terror attacks as well as ideal targets.
“Though being an essential part of modern life, very few actually comprehend the deadly and destructive capability of the motor vehicle and its capacity of reaping large numbers of casualties if used in a premeditated manner,” the article said.
The article also cited the attack in Nice, France, in July, in which a supposed ISIS supporter killed 86 people by plowing into a crowd with a truck on Bastille Day.
“Vehicles are like knives, as they are extremely easy to acquire,” the article said.”
ISIS magazine advocating vehicle attacks.
In addition, most police agencies are woefully unprepared to protect their citizens from a vehicle run-down attack.
When I was working as a cop during the height of terrorist vehicle attacks, I was worried that we would have a vehicle attack at my city’s most vulnerable event, our annual Fourth of July fireworks celebration. About 70,000 people attended the fireworks display every year. The park where they watched the overhead fireworks was very close to lots of roads. The city hadn’t historically protected our citizens well from a potential vehicle attack.
I sent the bosses a crowd-sourced proposal that utilized some the world’s top counter-terrorism agents to provide advice about how to stop terrorist vehicle attacks in our city. The bosses never even acknowledged receiving my proposal, let alone did anything to implement the changes I suggested. The fact that our Independence Day celebrations weren’t chosen for an attack was solely a matter of luck instead of quality contingency planning. Many police administrators care absolutely nothing about your safety. Relying on their “protection” is a mistake with potentially fatal consequences.
For what it’s worth, I turned the proposal I made to my former police department into an article for my website. In it, I cite the advice of three of my friends who are/were extremely high level counter terrorism experts for the CIA, DIA, and State Department. If you are one of the rare police administrators who care more about your residents’ safety than your own salary, take a look at the article and the advice some of my smartest friends gave me.
For more info on vehicle terrorist attacks check out the two articles linked below.
Vehicle Run Down Attacks
Terrorist Vehicle Attack Information Compendium
My prediction
I’m inclined to believe Sarah Adams’ assertion that we will soon see a wave of terrorist attacks on US soil. I think they will primarily consist of active shooters who are also armed with bombs (ala Mumbai), vehicle run down attacks, and low sophistication bombings of sensitive targets.
I provided you with links to my best articles about dealing with vehicle attacks and explosives in the article above. You might also read my article on best practices for dealing with active shooters and my active killer advice compendium as well.
Now let’s put on our thinking caps on and try to predict some more likely targets.
We know that the terrorists are planning to hit any target symbolic of America. They also prefer to target extremely vulnerable victim populations. They plan to utilize vehicle run down attacks combined with explosives to maximize damages. Let your brains run wild and think about possible attack scenarios to war game.
Here’s my completely baseless guess at a possible terrorist attack scenario.
The terrorists will target an elementary school. The victims there are extremely vulnerable and there isn’t likely to be any armed security on scene to protect them. The attack will consist of at least two guys in a large truck. There will be bombs in the truck and the terrorists will also have firearms.
The terrorists will strike at the school bus pickup/drop off point when kids are outside entering or departing the school for the day. They will drive the truck around the school buses and directly into the areas where students are waiting for their buses. They will run over as many people as they can until the truck is disabled.
When the vehicle ceases running, the terrorists will get out and begin shooting. They may also take hostages. When cops and EMS show up, the bomb in the disabled truck will detonate, killing the initial wave of first responders. That simple plan would be extremely ugly and hard to stop.
I’ve spoken to the superintendent of the school system with whom I consult to address these concerns. I asked him to tell his bus monitoring staff to pay close attention to suspicious people in the next few weeks. To pull off an attack like this one, the terrorists will need to conduct some pre-operation surveillance. That’s an opportunity to intervene.
The surveillance may also take place via drone. School staff should be alert for drones hovering overhead at either the beginning or the end of the school day. I suggested that the superintendent ask his staff to figure out how a vehicle driven by a terrorist could go around the parked school buses and mow down lots of little bodies as the kids are loading/unloading. Ultimately, whatever paths the school staff is able to note should be blocked in such a way that no one could access the vulnerable students with a speeding vehicle.
The attacks are coming. Prepare yourself and your family. Do your best to avoid symbolic targets and large crowds of people. Read up about how to prevent a vehicle run down attack. Carry a “real” gun whenever you leave the house. Most of all, be a step ahead of the terrorists so that you and you loved ones have enough forewarning that they might be able to escape at the earliest possible option.
Things are going to get spicy.
